Over the past decade, Latin America has frequently been described as experiencing a renewed surge of right-wing and far-right leadership. From Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador to Javier Milei in Argentina, alongside the electoral consolidation of right-wing executives such as Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, the region appears, at first glance, to be moving decisively to the right. In other countries, including Peru and Colombia (both facing presidential elections in the coming year), right-wing and conservative forces have gained visibility amid widespread dissatisfaction with incumbent governments. This pattern has often been interpreted as evidence of ideological realignment. Yet comparative research suggests a more cautious reading. In many cases, right-wing advances have functioned less as endorsements of coherent conservative or illiberal projects than as electoral sanctions against incumbents amid economic stagnation, insecurity, and political fatigue.
Kast’s Decisive Victory, with Important Qualifications
Chile’s 2025 presidential election unfolded against this broader regional backdrop. The contest followed a two-round system and was held concurrently with parliamentary elections. In the first round, right-wing candidates collectively captured close to half of the vote, which certainly represents a significant shift in the electoral axis compared to the 2021 election, though one that must be caveated. In the end, Jeannette Jara, a candidate from the Chilean Communist Party, representing the incumbent left-wing coalition Unity for Chile (Unidad por Chile), advanced to the runoff alongside the far-right leader José Antonio Kast of the Republican Party (Partido Republicano de Chile). A notable surprise of the first round was the strong performance of Franco Parisi, leader of the anti-system The Party of the People (Partido de la Gente), who obtained close to 20 percent of the vote. In the second round, Kast secured a decisive victory after consolidating most of the right-wing electorate, including a large share of Parisi’s voters (with the notable exception of the Metropolitan Region), alongside support from segments of the traditional conservative camp. This is how Kast was able to secure a decisive victory.
The election was historically significant for an additional reason: it was the first presidential race conducted under compulsory voting since its reintroduction in 2022. Turnout reached record levels, dramatically expanding the electorate and inflating nominal vote totals. These institutional conditions are essential for understanding both the magnitude of Kast’s victory and its political meaning, as they distinguish the 2025 contest from earlier presidential elections held under voluntary voting.
Given this, the claim that Kast is “the most voted-for president in the history of Chile” requires qualification. Because of the move to obligatory voting, turnout reached 85.4%, the highest ever recorded in the country, and the electoral roll virtually doubled compared to 2021, rising from slightly more than 7 million voters to over 15.6 million. This institutional change significantly amplified the nominal figures and makes comparisons analytically problematic with presidents elected under voluntary voting, such as Michelle Bachelet, Sebastián Piñera or Gabriel Boric. Kast’s mandate is broad, but it is also the product of a much larger, more heterogeneous electorate with weaker party attachments.
Thus, what first appears unequivocal is, with a closer reading, revealed to be a more complex scenario. The magnitude of the victory is real but must be interpreted with caution, and the institutional context in which Kast will assume office imposes clear limits on his capacity to advance a far-reaching illiberal agenda. The 2025 Chilean election thus offers a relevant lesson for comparative analysis: a resounding electoral victory does not necessarily translate into unrestricted institutional power.
The institutional context in which Kast will assume office imposes clear limits on his capacity to advance a far-reaching illiberal agenda.
Incumbent Exhaustion and Kast’s Crisis Narrative
Kast’s rise cannot be understood without considering the erosion in popularity of Gabriel Boric’s government. Elected in 2021 in a context marked by social uprisings and the pandemic, Boric initially embodied expectations of social transformation, feminist reforms, and generational renewal.
However, from 2022 onward, his support began to erode. Economic stagnation, legislative gridlock, and mounting concern over public security (frequently associated with irregular migration from Venezuela) weakened the government’s legitimacy. Added to this was the definitive end—that is, failure—of the process to rewrite Chile’s constitution, which Boric has invested significant political capital in. The rejection of the first draft in 2022 reinforced perceptions about political ineffectiveness and the exhaustion of the reformist cycle.
Kast managed to capitalize on social discontent not only as a leader of the right but as a figure who promised to restore order, control, and predictability…
This scenario opened a window of opportunity for the opposition. Kast managed to capitalize on social discontent not only as a leader of the right but as a figure who promised to restore order, control, and predictability in a country portrayed as traversed by multiple crises. In this context, one of the most striking features of Kast’s campaign was what it deliberately left out. Unlike other contemporary far-right leaders, Kast avoided placing at the center of his discourse issues associated with the culture war, such as feminism, sexual diversity, or identity conflicts.
Instead, he articulated a narrative built around overlapping crises. Security occupied a central place, with an emphasis on combating organized crime, strengthening borders, and building high-security prisons, implicitly evoking the Salvadoran model. The economic dimension was framed in terms of stagnation, fiscal disorder, and loss of dynamism, with indirect references to the Argentine experience. Migration operated as a connecting point between these narratives, linking insecurity and economic deterioration to the state’s inability to exercise control.
This strategy proved electorally effective. Rather than mobilizing voters through moral polarization, Kast appealed to fears associated with disorder and decline, positioning himself as the candidate of order and authority. The result suggests that, in Chile, the success of the far right depends less on cultural radicalization than on the securitization and economization of social discontent.
Rather than mobilizing voters through moral polarization, Kast appealed to fears associated with disorder and decline…
An Expanded, but Less Ideological Electorate?
The return of compulsory voting not only increased electoral participation, it also qualitatively transformed the composition of the electorate. The incorporation of millions of citizens with low levels of politicization and weak party identification makes it analytically problematic to assume that the broad support obtained by Kast reflects a consolidated ideological alignment with the right, let alone with the far right.
Recent evidence suggests an alternative interpretation. Both the constitutional processes and the 2025 presidential election point to the presence of a protest vote rather than a coherent programmatic vote. The defeat of the second constitutional draft in 2023 and the opposition’s victory in 2025 appear, to a large extent, to express rejection of the incumbent’s performance and perceptions of political disorder, rather than substantive convergence with a conservative or illiberal agenda.
…electoral support for Kast may be more superficial and contingent than aggregate results suggest.
From this perspective, electoral support for Kast may be more superficial and contingent than aggregate results suggest. It is plausible that his solid core of support is considerably smaller than his second-round vote share, concentrated in an ideologically committed nucleus, while a significant fraction of his voters responded to situational incentives. This pattern is not entirely different from what was observed under Boric’s government, whose coalition managed to retain relatively stable support—around one third of the electorate—despite a pronounced decline from the initial backing he received in his own second round.
Congressional Fragmentation and the Senate’s Veto
Despite the presidential victory, the parliamentary elections reveal a more complex scenario. The Chamber of Deputies emerged highly fragmented. While right-wing forces as a whole reached a majority, they are distributed across at least three distinct blocs. These blocs can be thought of as the far right, comprised of the Republican Party and the National Libertarian Party (Partido Nacional Libertario), the traditional right represented by Let’s Go Chile (Chile Vamos), and anti-system forces with low ideological cohesion, represented primarily by The Party of the People mentioned above.
The Republican Party consolidated itself as the largest individual caucus, displacing traditional right-wing parties, which declined significantly compared to 2021. At the same time, the populist Party of the People increased its representation, emerging as a pivotal actor, but one that is difficult to integrate stably into a governing coalition.
This fragmentation is compounded by high party volatility. Around 20% of the elected deputies changed party affiliation prior to the election, and a substantial share of the Chamber is composed of first-time legislators. These factors weaken party discipline and complicate the construction of stable majorities, especially for controversial reforms.
The main brake on an illiberal agenda lies in the Senate. In Chile, constitutional reforms require a four-sevenths quorum in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Given the current composition of the Senate, that threshold is simply unattainable for the new government. Even in the unrealistic scenario of full coordination between all right-wing forces, the numbers do not allow the required quorum to be reached. This effectively blocks any attempt at deep constitutional change without broad cross-cutting agreements, which are currently highly unlikely.
The main brake on an illiberal agenda lies in the Senate.
This institutional architecture clearly distinguishes the Chilean case from experiences such as El Salvador, where executive control over the legislature facilitated accelerated institutional transformations. In Chile, the Senate operates as a robust veto player, reinforcing institutional continuity and limiting unilateral executive action.
Strong Mandate, Constrained Power
José Antonio Kast assumes the presidency with a clear electoral mandate and in a context favorable to the right. Nonetheless, his room for maneuver is structurally constrained. A fragmented Congress, high party volatility, a Senate without government majorities, and demanding constitutional quorums together configure a web of checks and balances that restrict any attempt at rapid or unilateral illiberal transformation.
José Antonio Kast assumes the presidency with a clear electoral mandate and in a context favorable to the right. Nonetheless, his room for maneuver is structurally constrained.
The 2025 Chilean election thus shows that the triumph of the far right does not necessarily entail an immediate institutional rupture. Rather, it opens a scenario in which the boundaries between electoral strength and democratic constraint are put under strain, offering a key case for observing how democracies can absorb radical victories without dismantling their rules of the game overnight.
Lisa Zanotti is a Researcher at the Democracy Institute at Central European University (Budapest, Hungary) and in the Laboratory for the Study of the far-right (Santiago, Chile). She also serves as Co-Editor-in-Chief of the journal Political Research Exchange.
Fabián Villalobos-Machuca is aPhD candidate in Political Science and holds a master’s degree in political science from the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. He is also a Research Fellow at V-Dem Institute (Latin America).
Image made using “Live Especial Mujeres Comité Político, Ministra Jannette Jara (crop2),” by Vocería de Gobierno licensed under CC Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic; “Gabriel Boric Giving speech,” by Fotografoencampana licensed under CC Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International; “José Antonio Kast en 2025” by Equipo Kast licensed under CC Attribution 4.0 International. All other images used are in the public domain.
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